Complexity creates chaos?

A computerized scientific model aimed at predicting hurricanes must include a lot of information. Humidity, ocean currents, ocean temperatures, wind patterns, air temperatures, amount of cloud cover. the list is long. The more information, the more accurate the model, right? Yes. And no.

In very complex models, a tiny difference can create very different results.

A global weather model, for example, might predict a hurricane or a calm, sunny day. The difference between the two predictions might be a single temperature measurement too small for the human senses to detect. That randomness has been described as the "butterfly effect," or the idea that a butterfly moving its wings could alter the weather a year from now halfway across the planet.

Chaos affects the parts of our world that we've never been able to predict consistently. Chaotic patterns vary over time, aren't linear and don't repeat precisely: History. The shifting shape of Oregon's coastline. Snowflakes.

Our waterwheel in the Pattern Garden is designed to help visitors understand a bit about chaos. The wheel's movement predictable until the water level shifts below a certain point. Then the wheel spins more randomly. You can't predict which direction it will turn, how much water it will dump, or how far or how fast it will move.

The implications of chaos theory are being explored in art, management, music, social science and engineering.

Want to learn more about Chaos Theory? Our bookstore carries several books on the topic, and there are many sites available on the Web. Some web pages are created by scientists to share their findings, others by people fascinated by chaos theory who lack any scientific training. Here are a few to get you started:

• What is Chaos Theory? - A brief discussion of chaos and its principles from The Fractal Foundation, dedicated to using the beauty of fractals to inspire interest in science, math and art.
• Chaos Theory: A Brief Introduction - A clear and concise introduction to chaos concepts
  
• In a World of Order, Chaos Reigns - A ThinkQuest site, created by pre-college students.Easy-to-understand examples of chaos in everyday life, from the coastline of Britain to washing machine design.