Complexity creates chaos?

A computerized scientific model aimed at predicting hurricanes must include a lot of information. Humidity, ocean currents, ocean temperatures, wind patterns, air temperatures, amount of cloud cover. the list is long. The more information, the more accurate the model, right? Yes. And no.

In very complex models, a tiny difference can create very different results.

A global weather model, for example, might predict a hurricane or a calm, sunny day. The difference between the two predictions might be a single temperature measurement too small for the human senses to detect. That randomness has been described as the "butterfly effect," or the idea that a butterfly moving its wings could alter the weather a year from now halfway across the planet.

Chaos affects the parts of our world that we've never been able to predict consistently. Chaotic patterns vary over time, aren't linear and don't repeat precisely. History. The shifting shape of Oregon's coastline. Snowflakes.

Chaos theory can be hard to understand so we've made a visible example. Our waterwheel in the Pattern Garden is predictable until the water level shifts below a trigger point. Then the wheel spins more randomly. You can't predict which direction it will turn, how much water it will dump, or how far or how fast it will move.

The implications of chaos theory are being explored in art, management, music, social science and engineering.

Want to learn more about Chaos Theory? Our bookstore carries several books on the topic, and there are many sites available on the Web. Some web pages are created by scientists to share their findings, others by people fascinated by chaos theory who lack any scientific training. Here are a few to get you started.

Chaos Links

You'll need to use a bookmark or your browser's back button to return from these links.

In a World of Order, Chaos Reigns

A ThinkQuest site, created by pre-college students. The easiest of the sites to understand it includes examples of chaos theory from everyday life, including the coastline of Britain, a washing machine design and the stock market.

Chaos at Maryland

This University of Maryland at College Park site includes an art gallery explanation of terms (college-level vocabulary) and research into chaos in many disciplines.

The Chaos Hypertextbook

starts with a easy introduction and rapidly moves to college-level vocabulary and math.

What is Chaos?

A five-part online text by a University of Texas professor.

The University of Texas' Ilya Prigogine center

for Studies in Statistical Mechanics and Complex Systems, with information about current research.

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